Are Smartwatches Making Traditional Watches Obsolete? Industry Experts Weigh In
The Wrist Real Estate Showdown
I remember when my dad gave me my first “real” watch – a modest Seiko automatic that wasn’t particularly expensive, but man, did I feel grown-up wearing it. Fast forward twenty-something years, and now my nephew wants an Apple Watch for his 12th birthday. Times change, right?
It’s been roughly a decade since smartwatches burst onto the scene and started competing for that precious piece of real estate on our wrists. With global smartwatch shipments hitting 143 million units in 2023 (up 9% from the previous year), the question inevitably pops up: are traditional watches becoming the horological equivalent of the dodo bird?
I decided to dig into this question by talking to people who eat, sleep, and breathe watches – collectors, industry analysts, watchmakers, and retailers – to get their take on whether traditional timepieces are ticking toward obsolescence.
The Numbers Game: Market Realities
Let’s get the obvious stuff out of the way first – smartwatches are selling like hotcakes. Apple alone shipped about 50 million smartwatches last year, which is more than the entire Swiss watch industry combined. That’s… kind of mindblowing when you think about it.
“The entry-level market for traditional watches under $500 has been absolutely decimated,” explains Rachel Chen, a market analyst at Luxury Timepiece Research Group. “If your primary concern is simply telling time and getting basic functionality, why wouldn’t you choose a device that does that plus about fifty other useful things?”
But here’s where it gets interesting – while smartwatch sales climb, high-end mechanical watches aren’t exactly gathering dust on store shelves.
“Our sales of luxury timepieces over $10,000 have actually increased by 18% since 2019,” says Thomas Hendricks, owner of Precision Timepieces, a high-end watch retailer with locations in Chicago and San Francisco. “The pandemic created a strange boom for us. People couldn’t travel or dine out, so they redirected that discretionary spending to things like watches.”
Different Beasts, Different Purposes
Speaking with both enthusiasts and casual wearers, a theme quickly emerged – most people don’t see this as an either/or proposition.
“I wear my Grand Seiko to dinner and my board meetings, and my Apple Watch when I’m working out or running errands,” explains James Morton, a 42-year-old finance executive and watch collector. “They serve completely different purposes in my life. One’s a tool, the other’s jewelry – and sometimes a bit of both.”
This sentiment was echoed by many enthusiasts I spoke with. The traditional watch has simply evolved from being a necessity to being a choice – a conscious decision to wear something mechanical and often anachronistic in a digital world.
Watch industry veteran and former Omega executive Caroline Walsh puts it this way: “Mechanical watches are like sailing ships in the age of motorboats. Nobody needs to sail anymore to get somewhere, but people still love doing it because it connects them to tradition, craftsmanship, and a more mindful way of experiencing the journey.”
The Generation Gap… Or Not?
I was pretty convinced going into this that there’d be a clear generational divide – boomers with their Rolexes, Gen Z with their Apple Watches. But what I found was far more nuanced.
“Our customer base is getting younger, not older,” says William Chang of Timepiece Collective, an online watch community and marketplace. “We’re seeing a surprising number of 25-35 year olds getting into mechanical watches, often after owning a smartwatch first. There’s this rediscovery of analog experiences happening across many industries – vinyl records, film photography, and yes, mechanical watches.”
This tracks with broader cultural trends, where many younger consumers are developing an appreciation for analog experiences precisely because they’ve grown up in such a digital world.
Olivia Rodriguez, a 28-year-old software engineer, represents this counterintuitive trend: “I spend all day staring at screens and being notified about everything. My mechanical watch is deliberately disconnected. When I check the time, that’s all I’m doing – I’m not getting sucked into a vortex of alerts and updates.”
The Craftsmanship Factor
One factor that keeps traditional watchmaking relevant is the sheer artistry involved. While smartwatches are marvels of miniaturization and battery efficiency, they can’t compete with the centuries-old tradition of mechanical watchmaking.
“A fine mechanical watch has more in common with Gothic cathedral building than with modern electronics manufacturing,” says master watchmaker Henri Dubois. “These are tiny mechanical sculptures that will still be working generations from now if properly maintained. Can you say the same about today’s smartwatch? Will it even power on in 10 years?”
This longevity aspect comes up again and again in conversations with collectors. Mechanical watches are often purchased with inheritance in mind – heirlooms meant to be passed down. Smartwatches, with their built-in obsolescence, simply don’t serve this function.
The Adaptation Game
The traditional watch industry isn’t exactly sitting still either. Many brands are finding ways to incorporate some “smart” elements while staying true to their mechanical roots.
“We’re seeing more hybrid approaches,” explains industry analyst Chen. “Brands like Frederique Constant, Montblanc, and even TAG Heuer have developed watches that look traditional but offer activity tracking and basic notifications. It’s a compromise that appeals to those who want some connectivity without sacrificing style or having another screen to look at.”
Some traditional watchmakers are leaning hard into what makes them different. “We’ve actually embraced our role as creators of ‘digital detox’ devices,” says Marcus Williams, marketing director for a mid-sized Swiss watch brand. “Our newest campaign literally shows a man locking his phone in a drawer and putting on a mechanical watch before going to meet friends. We’re positioning ourselves as the antidote to digital overload.”
The Luxury Angle
One undeniable truth: traditional watches have increasingly moved into the luxury space, with the average price point climbing significantly over the past decade.
“What we’re seeing is a bifurcation of the market,” explains economists and luxury goods specialist Dr. Elaine Park. “The $300-1,000 segment is where traditional watches are struggling most. Below that, people buy fashion watches or smartwatches. Above that, they’re buying entry-level luxury that holds value. The middle market is getting squeezed from both ends.”
This tracks with broader consumer trends, where mid-market products across many categories have lost ground while both budget and premium offerings thrive.
The Watch as Identity
Perhaps the most interesting insight came from discussions about why people choose the watches they do. For many, it’s deeply tied to identity and self-expression.
“A watch is still one of the few socially acceptable pieces of jewelry for many men,” points out cultural anthropologist Dr. Ramon Velasquez. “They serve as signifiers of taste, success, and personal values. An investment banker might wear a Rolex to signal success in a conventional way, while an architect might choose something from an independent watchmaker to signal creativity and appreciation for design.”
This identity function is something smartwatches haven’t fully captured, despite customizable faces and band options. Your Apple Watch might have a different screen than mine, but they’re fundamentally the same product. Traditional watches offer far more differentiation and personality.
The Verdict: Evolution, Not Extinction
After dozens of conversations with industry insiders, the consensus is clear: traditional watches aren’t disappearing, but their role is evolving.
“What we’re witnessing isn’t the death of traditional watchmaking but its transformation into something more deliberate,” summarizes Walsh. “Wearing a mechanical watch today is a choice, not a necessity. That actually makes it more meaningful, not less.”
The numbers back this up. While smartwatches dominate in volume, the value of the traditional watch market remains robust, with luxury segments growing steadily. The two categories seem to be settling into different lanes rather than directly competing for the same consumers.
For many enthusiasts, like collector Morton, the future includes both: “Twenty years from now, I expect I’ll still be wearing my mechanical watches to special occasions and some version of a smartwatch for everyday convenience. They solve different problems and deliver different pleasures.”
So are traditional watches becoming obsolete? The answer is a nuanced no. They’re becoming more specialized, more luxurious, and more deliberately chosen – but for those exact reasons, they’re likely to remain on wrists for generations to come.
After all, as master watchmaker Dubois points out with a wry smile, “People have been predicting the death of mechanical watches since the quartz crisis of the 1970s. We’re still here. I suspect we’ll outlast today’s smartwatches too.”
