Luxury Watch Investment Guide

Okay, so we need to have a little chat about the whole “watches as investments” thing. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard someone justify dropping five figures on a watch by saying, “It’s an investment!” while their significant other gives them that look. You know the one.

Let me start with some real talk: most watches are terrible investments. Like, truly awful. But—and this is a big but—there are exceptions, patterns, and strategies that actually can make watch collecting financially rewarding… sometimes.

I’ve been in this game for years now, made some smart moves and some seriously dumb ones (we’ll get to my unfortunate Panerai phase later), and I want to save you from making the same mistakes I did. Let’s cut through the Instagram hype and look at what really happens when you try to treat watches like stocks.

The Hard Truth About Watches as Investments

Here’s the reality check: the vast majority of watches depreciate. You buy a brand new watch from an authorized dealer, walk out the door, and it’s immediately worth less than what you paid. Sometimes a lot less.

This shouldn’t be shocking. Watches are luxury items, not financial instruments. They’re more like cars than stocks—the moment they’re “used,” their value typically drops.

But then… why do we keep hearing about watch investments? Why are there waiting lists and gray market premiums for certain models? Well, that’s where things get interesting.

The Watches That Actually Might Make You Money

Let’s talk about the exceptions—the watches that have historically appreciated over time or at least held their value reasonably well.

1. The “Big Three” Sports Models

The most reliable performers have been stainless steel sports models from the holy trinity of watch hype:

• Rolex (particularly the Submariner, GMT-Master, and Daytona)
• Patek Philippe (especially the Nautilus)
• Audemars Piguet (mainly the Royal Oak)

I have a friend who bought a steel Daytona at retail in 2017 for about $13,000. Today, that same watch sells for around $35,000 on the secondary market. That’s a better return than most stock market investments over the same period.

But—and this is crucial—good luck getting one at retail price without a purchase history or a connection. The watches most likely to appreciate are also the hardest to buy at retail.

2. Limited Editions That Actually Matter

Not all limited editions are created equal. That 2,500-piece “special edition” with a blue dial instead of black? Probably not moving the needle. But genuinely limited production pieces from respected brands can do well.

For example, the F.P. Journe Chronomètre Bleu has shot up in value over the years, partly because it’s both beautiful and made in genuinely small numbers. Same with special pieces from independents like Philippe Dufour or Roger Smith.

3. Discontinued Models That Developed a Following

Sometimes, watches that weren’t particularly sought-after when in production become collectible after they’re discontinued.

The perfect example is the Rolex “Hulk” Submariner with the green dial and bezel. When it was in production, you could walk into dealers and find them. When it was discontinued in 2020, prices on the secondary market doubled almost overnight.

Why Most People Lose Money on Watch “Investments”

Despite these success stories, most watch buyers don’t make money. Here’s why:

1. You’re Paying Retail

The biggest kill shot to your “investment” is buying at full retail. Unless you’re getting one of the unicorn models mentioned above at MSRP (good luck), you’re starting with a handicap.

I once bought a brand new IWC Pilot Chronograph from an AD. Beautiful watch, but I paid full retail. When I sold it three years later, I lost about 35% of what I paid, despite it being in excellent condition. Had I bought it pre-owned to begin with, that hit would have been much smaller.

2. You’re Chasing Trends

Remember when Panerai was the hottest thing around in the early 2000s? Yeah, those have mostly crashed in value. Or how about the brief period when everyone wanted a giant 47mm watch on their wrist?

Buying what’s hot right now is usually a recipe for losses later. By the time something becomes trendy in watches, much of the appreciation has already happened.

3. You’re Ignoring the Hidden Costs

Even if your watch increases in value, there are costs that eat into your return:

• Service costs (a proper service on a high-end watch can easily be $500-1,000 every 5-7 years)
• Insurance
• The opportunity cost of having money tied up in watches instead of traditional investments
• Storage/security if you have valuable pieces

My buddy Mike didn’t factor in the cost of servicing his vintage Submariner when calculating his “profit.” That $1,200 service bill definitely took a bite out of his returns.

How to (Maybe) Build a Watch Collection That Appreciates

If you’re still reading and haven’t been scared off, here are some strategies that might help you build a collection that at least holds its value—and possibly appreciates:

1. Buy Pre-Owned (Usually)

Unless you’re getting one of those unicorn watches at retail, buying pre-owned lets someone else take the initial depreciation hit. Sites like Chrono24, WatchBox, and even eBay (with caution) can be good resources.

I bought my Omega Speedmaster pre-owned for about 30% less than retail, and when I sold it years later, I actually made a small profit. Not because Speedmasters had suddenly skyrocketed, but because I hadn’t taken that initial depreciation hit.

2. Research Historical Performance

Some watches have proven track records of holding value. Look at historical pricing data (sites like WatchCharts can help) to identify models with stable or increasing values over time.

The Rolex Explorer, for instance, has been a steady performer—not explosive growth like the Daytona, but consistent, modest appreciation over decades.

3. Focus on Classics, Not Trends

Classic designs that have stood the test of time tend to hold value better than watches that are obviously from a specific era. Compare the timeless design of the Submariner (basically unchanged since the 1950s) with the distinctly 1970s look of chunky integrated bracelet watches.

My most regrettable purchase? A very “of the moment” Gerald Genta design that screamed 1970s. It became harder to sell with each passing year.

4. Condition Matters… A Lot

In vintage watches especially, condition is everything. A beaten-up Submariner from the 1960s might sell for half what a well-preserved example would fetch.

If you’re buying vintage, original parts, paperwork, and service history all impact value significantly. My vintage Datejust came with its original box, papers, and even purchase receipt from 1972. When I sold it, that complete package definitely helped me get top dollar.

5. Consider Independent Watchmakers

While Rolex gets all the attention, some of the most significant appreciation has happened with watches from independent makers like F.P. Journe, Philippe Dufour, and H. Moser & Cie.

These watches are produced in genuinely small numbers (sometimes just dozens per year), and as the makers gain recognition, earlier pieces often appreciate substantially.

Brands to Watch (Pun Intended)

If you’re looking at watches with investment potential, here are some brands to consider beyond the obvious Rolex/Patek/AP trio:

A-Lange & Söhne

German perfectionism at its finest. Their watches aren’t flashy status symbols, but serious collectors are increasingly recognizing their exceptional quality, potentially driving future value.

F.P. Journe

Journe’s earlier pieces, particularly those with brass movements, have already appreciated substantially. As he nears retirement, his watches may continue to rise in value.

Grand Seiko

Still undervalued compared to Swiss luxury brands despite equal or better craftsmanship. Their limited editions, particularly in Spring Drive, have started to show promising secondary market performance.

Tudor

Rolex’s sister brand has created its own identity with models like the Black Bay Fifty-Eight. Some limited editions have already appreciated.

Omega

Specific models like the Speedmaster Professional and Seamaster 300 have shown steady value retention, though not explosive growth.

Red Flags: Watch “Investments” to Avoid

Some watches are almost guaranteed to be poor investments:

Fashion Brand Watches

Sorry, but that Gucci, Versace, or Armani watch? Terrible investment. Fashion brands have little horological credibility and their watches depreciate rapidly.

Most Quartz Watches

With some exceptions (like vintage Seiko quartz), battery-powered watches rarely become collectible. The mechanical movement itself is part of what collectors value.

Ultra-Complicated Modern Watches

Counterintuitively, the most complicated modern watches (annual calendars, perpetual calendars, etc.) often depreciate more severely than simpler models. They’re expensive to service and technology keeps improving, making older complications less desirable.

I learned this lesson when I bought a pre-owned IWC Portuguese Annual Calendar. Stunning watch, but I lost nearly 50% when I sold it four years later.

The Best Approach: Buy Watches You Love

Here’s my actual advice after years in the watch game: buy watches you genuinely love and would be happy to keep forever. If they happen to appreciate, that’s a bonus.

I’ve never regretted buying a watch I truly loved, even if I lost money when I eventually sold it. But I’ve definitely regretted “investment” purchases that I didn’t connect with emotionally.

My most financially successful watch purchase was also one I adored—a vintage Rolex Explorer 1016 from the 1960s. I wore it for five years, loved every minute with it, and when I eventually sold it (to fund a house down payment), it had appreciated enough to feel like I’d been paid to wear a watch I treasured.

That’s the sweet spot: emotional returns first, financial returns second.

Final Thoughts: A Watch Collection Is Not a Retirement Plan

I can’t stress this enough: do not buy watches as a substitute for actual investments. If anyone tells you to put your retirement savings into watches instead of traditional investments, back away slowly.

A diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, and other traditional assets is still the most reliable path to financial security. Watches should be a small, fun portion of your overall asset allocation—not your primary investment strategy.

That said, building a watch collection with a shrewd eye toward value retention can turn an expensive hobby into one that might eventually pay for itself. And there’s something uniquely satisfying about wearing an appreciating asset on your wrist.

Just remember: the watch market can be as irrational as any collector market. Today’s hot commodity might be tomorrow’s shelf-sitter. Buy quality, buy what you love, and don’t stretch your finances based on promises of future returns that may never materialize.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to go check if those Grand Seiko limited editions I’ve been eyeing have come down in price yet. Research purposes only, of course. (My wife might be reading this, after all.)

Got a watch investment win or horror story to share? Drop it in the comments below—I love hearing about both the victories and the hard lessons learned in this crazy watch game!

Rolex
Omega
Patek Philippe
Audemars Piguet
TAG Heuer
Seiko
Longines
Tissot
Casio
Citizen